Who will win Euro 2025? What the stats say about England’s probabilities of retaining title

Who will win Euro 2025? What the stats say about England’s probabilities of retaining title


No reigning champion has ever misplaced their first sport on the subsequent event (W7, D5) whereas the Lionesses have additionally gained every of their previous 14 group-stage video games at main tournaments – the World Cup and Euros – which is the longest ever such run by a European nation.

So, we are able to count on a promising begin by England – who’re the one staff at Euro 2025 which have gained their most up-to-date assembly towards every of their group opponents – and that ought to quieten down among the unfavourable noise that has surrounded the squad pre-tournament.

Wiegman has come below strain to stabilise the England camp rapidly after they misplaced three key gamers only a month out from the Euros.

Mary Earps (retired), Millie Shiny (unavailable for choice) and Fran Kirby (not chosen, then retired) will play no half in Switzerland however have been all a part of an England beginning XI that went unchanged from the primary group stage sport to the ultimate of their 2022 success.

That leaves Hannah Hampton as England’s primary for the event, although in equity the indicators have been there that that will be the case even with out Earps’ retirement.

The Chelsea goalkeeper has gained simply 16 senior caps in comparison with Earps’ 53, however began 10 of England’s 16 video games between the beginning of 2024 and the 32-year-old’s retirement.

Trying extra particularly at simply aggressive fixtures, and throughout the interval for the reason that finish of the 2023 World Cup, the stats do counsel Hampton is the right option to be the Lionesses’ first-choice keeper.

In that point, Hampton has a superior save fee (67.9% to 63%), has stored extra clear sheets (5 to 2) and has conceded fewer targets than anticipated as per Opta’s anticipated goals-on-target mannequin (1.4). Earps then again conceded greater than the mannequin anticipated (-1.1).

The 24-year-old – who was a joint-winner of the 2024-25 Girls’s Tremendous League Golden Glove award – is seemingly extra trusted together with her toes too, averaging 36 passes per 90 minutes in comparison with 29 per 90 for Earps. That being mentioned, Earps did publish a greater passing accuracy throughout that interval than Hampton (83.8% to 79.6%).

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